Foresight Studies

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Prospective

“The first aim of foresight studies is to illuminate the choices of the present in the light of possible futures”. Michel Godet (1993)

Human beings have been interested in what is going to happen in the future since their beginnings on the earth. In the 1940s and 1950s, the future started to become an object of study – not so much focussing on predicting the future as exploring possible future alternatives. This became more widespread in the 1960s and boomed in the 1990s. Exploring possible, or even probable, alternatives was based on asking ourselves what would happen if some current condition were to change. In other words, predicting which different scenarios could be triggered if one or more of a set of current conditions changed. This became particularly relevant during the last quarter of the twentieth century when a complex process of change was experienced. This process, which is still underway, has generated and continues to generate a great deal of uncertainty in the foundations of social, political and economic institutions.

Uncertainty and complexity

The higher the level of uncertainty, the greater the level of complexity of the situation that needs to be solved. In simple situations, or those in which we can be sure of what is going to happen, it is enough to have sufficient foresight to pick the right strategy to follow by studying the controlled variables. If events will probably happen regularly, we can predict future conditions using stochastic hypotheses. When we know what events are going to happen, but not the order they are going to happen in, we need to identify a range of possible results. Finally, if the level of uncertainty is extremely high, in other words we have absolutely no idea what is going to happen in the future, we need to develop much more detailed action plans based on “What would happen if… such and such a thing happened…”. To do this, we need to be creative, innovative and ready for surprises.
Predicting the future, in the medium-term at least, requires intelligence on an individual and collective basis. We need to analyse the present and plan the future creatively. To do this, we must review our current and foreseeable resources (science, economy, law, politics, citizens, ethics). We need to review everything that we can use.

We can shape our future

The future is not entirely predetermined; to a certain extent we can shape it. What happens will depend on many things, including the choices we have made. Looking at it this way, the future is a collection of different possibilities, or contingencies, which range from certainty to uncertainty, limits to opportunities, some of which are more likely than others.

We build the future

The future might bring elements that we cannot control. However, there will be others that we will be able to handle through our decisions and actions.

The OECD defines foresight studies as “systematic attempts to look into the longer term future of science, technology, economy and society with a view to identifying emerging generic technologies likely to yield the greatest economic and/or social benefits”.

Thus, foresight studies can be defined as a transdisciplinary research field which has a global, systematic and open perspective and explains possible future outcomes (future realities). This is achieved by analysing the past and the future of quantitative and qualitative variables as well as the behaviour of the stakeholders involved. This reduces uncertainty, sheds new light on present actions and puts forward mechanisms which will lead to an acceptable or desired future.
Consequently, foresight studies can be of enormous benefit to society. They can be applied to virtually any sphere of human activity (economics, law, business, politics, science, technology, artistic expression, cultural trends, current thinking, town planning, migratory movements, etc.) as approaching the future of any situation is possible.

AVAP is the Valencian Region’s Futures Agency. Any public or private institution in the Region drawing up foresight studies can count on the support and advice of AVAP. AVAP also compiles its own foresight studies and reports.